Introduction
As we approach the conclusion of the third epoch, countdown to the next Bitcoin halving is firmly engaged. Halving (also known as “Halvening”) is one of the most important and innovative features of Bitcoin. Every 10 minutes, the Bitcoin network issues new bitcoins, and approximately every four years (every 210,000 blocks, to be precise), the amount issued (the “block grant”) is cut in half. The block grant is the reward miners receive for validating and recording new transactions on the blockchain.
The halving of the block subsidy is a key factor in the eventual capped supply of 21 million bitcoins. Additionally, miners also collect transaction fees that users attach to their transactions to encourage them to include them in the next block. Therefore, miners often earn more bitcoins for mining a block than for simply granting it. .
WHEN IS THE NEXT BITCOIN HALVING?
The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur around April 20, 2024 EST, reducing the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. This halving period – or epoch – will increase the supply by 164,250 bitcoins (from 19,687,500 to 20,671,875), or just 328,124 bitcoins compared to the maximum supply limit of 21 million.
TO CALCULATE THE NEXT HALF DATE
- Determine the block interval: While it is true that Bitcoin's block time (the time between each block) is approximately 10 minutes, the time can vary slightly due to hash rate and network adjustments.
- Find the current block height: You need to know the current block height, which you can find on various blockchain explorer websites or directly from your Bitcoin node if you are running one.
- Calculate the remaining blocks until the next halving: Bitcoin halving occurs every 210,000 blocks. Subtract the current block height from the next block height divided by two.
- Calculate the estimated time remaining: Multiply the number of blocks remaining by the approximate block interval (in seconds) to estimate the time remaining until the next halving.
- Convert Time to Date: Convert the estimated time remaining to a date format to know when the next halving is scheduled.
Current block height: can be found here.
Block time: can be found here.
Current date: xx/xx/xxxx
Blocks per era: 210,000
Next half block height: 210,000 times next half number
Calculation:
(((Next Block Height Halving – Current Block Height)*10)/60)/24 = Days Remaining
Hash rate and difficulty adjustment are two variables that constantly shape the speed at which blocks are processed and therefore the intervals between blocks. The date of the next halving may therefore vary, so it is important to continue doing the calculation.
HISTORY OF BITCOIN HALVINGS
As of March 2024, there have been three Bitcoin halvings:
- On November 28, 2012, Bitcoin's block subsidy increased from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC per block.
- On July 9, 2016, the second Bitcoin halving reduced the block subsidy from 25 BTC per block to 12.5 BTC per block.
- On May 20, 2020, the third Bitcoin halving reduced the block subsidy from 12.5 BTC per block to 6.25 BTC per block.
BITCOIN HALVING 2012
The 2012 halving was the first Bitcoin halving.
Reduce by half :
Date: November 28, 2012
Half number: 01
Block height: 210,000
Block reward: 25
Mined supply: 10,500,000 (amount of bitcoin already issued at the time of the halving)
Era:
Grant: 5,250,000
Percentage of offer extracted: 25%
BITCOIN HALVING 2016
The 2016 halving was the second Bitcoin halving.
Reduce by half :
Date: July 9, 2016
Half number: 01
Block height: 420,000
Block reward: 12.5
Supply mined: 15,750,000 (amount of bitcoin already issued at the time of the halving)
Era:
Grant: 2,625,000
Percentage of offer extracted: 12.5%
BITCOIN HALVING 2020
The 2020 halving was Bitcoin's third halving.
Reduce by half :
Date: May 20, 2020
Half number: 03
Block height: 630,000
Block reward: 6.25
Supply mined: 18,375,000 (amount of bitcoin already issued when the halving took place)
Era:
Grant: 1,312,500
Percentage of offer extracted: 6.25%
BITCOIN HALVING 2024
The 2024 halving will be Bitcoin's third halving.
Reduce by half :
Date: April 20, 2024 (estimated)
Half number: 04
Block height: 840,000
Block reward: 3,125
Supply mined: 19,687,500 (amount of bitcoin issued during the halving)
Era:
Grant: 656,250
Percentage of offer extracted: 3.125%
FUTURE BITCOIN HALVES
The lock-in time variable will introduce some variation in the estimated halving dates, but it is possible to project approximate dates until the conclusion of the block grants in 2140. Below we provide a brief overview of the dates halvings predicted from 2024 to 2060, providing valuable insights into these upcoming milestones.
Period number | Block height | Year divided by two | Estimated Halving Date |
---|---|---|---|
04 (out of 32) |
840,000 |
2024 |
April 20, 2024 |
05 (out of 32) |
1,050,000 |
2028 |
2028 |
06 (out of 32) |
1,260,000 |
2032 |
2032 |
07 (out of 32) |
1,470,000 |
2036 |
2036 |
08 (out of 32) |
1,680,000 |
2040 |
2040 |
09 (out of 32) |
1,890,000 |
2044 |
2044 |
10 (out of 32) |
2,100,000 |
2048 |
2048 |
11 (out of 32) |
2,310,000 |
2052 |
2052 |
12 (out of 32) |
2,520,000 |
2056 |
2056 |
(following…) |
HISTORICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE BITCOIN HALVING
Halving events have consistently preceded significant increases in the price of bitcoin, making them a focal point for market analysts.
Price assessment
Historically, the price of bitcoin has seen significant surges after halving events due to the combination of reduced supply and increased demand. These events significantly influence the overall supply of bitcoin, thereby affecting its price. Nonetheless, it is essential to recognize that price dynamics are influenced by many factors other than halving events.
- After the 2012 halving, the price of bitcoin increased by approximately 9,000% to $1,162.
- After the 2016 halving, the price of bitcoin increased by approximately 4,200% to $19,800.
- After the 2020 halving, the price of Bitcoin increased by approximately 683% to $69,000.
Bitcoin's issuance rate is halved approximately every four years.
Challenges for minors
Halving events can cause problems for miners because their revenue decreases when block rewards are halved. To remain competitive, mining companies must operate efficiently, which could potentially drive the development and adoption of more energy-efficient mining technologies. It is quite common for miners to go bankrupt, which often impacts the network's hash rate, the supply of bitcoins available for sale, and ultimately the price of bitcoin. Through the upheaval, the difficulty adjustment eventually restores balance and the Bitcoin network and ecosystem continues to move forward.
FAQ:
Will Bitcoin Halve?
Bitcoin's historical performance after a halving event has shown a remarkable upward trajectory. Reducing the rate of new supply is Bitcoin’s path to absolute scarcity. This event often generates increased interest and demand. However, it is essential to exercise caution and not view halvings as a guarantee of quick profits. The prudent approach is to understand the long-term potential of bitcoin and view it as a store of value rather than trying to time the market with buying and selling.
Is Bitcoin bullish by half?
The Bitcoin halving is unquestionably a bullish event, as it shifts the supply dynamics in favor of price appreciation. Although the halving is generally considered a bullish event, it is wise to remember that the price of Bitcoin is influenced by several factors. Caution is required.
How many days after Bitcoin halving did it reach its peak?
A review of the last three halving events shows that a significant price rise usually begins a few months after the halving event. Additionally, before a halving, the price of bitcoin tends to rise, as investors anticipate a price rise after the halving. After the halving, the price usually takes more than 12 months to reach its peak.
Should you buy Bitcoin before the halving?
Instead of trying to understand when to buy and sell bitcoin, it is advisable to understand the value of the asset. That said, a trend has occurred in the past where buying 6-12 months before the halving and selling 12-18 months after the halving tends to generate a significant profit. Past performance and behavior are not a guarantee of future performance. Our best advice to those who are not experienced traders would be to buy and hold for several cycles.