The cryptocurrency market has seen a significant downturn, with many of the top 100 cryptocurrencies experiencing sharp price drops. Bitcoin, the leading digital asset, hit a low of $61,600 on Tuesday.
However, industry experts suggest a potential rebound higher peaks could be on the horizon as the highly anticipated halving event approaches.
Adrian Zduńczyk, crypto trader and technical analyst, provides valuable insights into market dynamics, highlighting key factors such as bull market indicators, ETFs, and the impending halving event.
Mixed signals for BTC
According to Zduńczyk analysisThe market is showing bullish signs, with 200- and 50-week moving averages (MA) at $33,700 and $39,900, respectively.
The net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) ratio is 0.55, which indicates a favorable business environment. Additionally, the 7-week correlation with the S&P 500 (SPX) remains firm at 0.71.
In terms of daily trends, Zduńczyk notes that Bitcoin is currently in a volatile range between $59,000 and $74,000, with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) increasing to $46,600 and Bitcoin's 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Production cost (BPRO) up to $57,700.
However, the analyst notes that medium-term momentum is declining and the 50-day Average True Range (ATR) volatility has increased to $3,270. This suggests that the overall Bitcoin price trend is losing strength or momentum in the medium term.
Bitcoin targets $86,500
Zduńczyk highlights market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is at 65, indicating a state of greed among market participants. The analyst notes that the current phase of the market cycle is characterized by belief.
Additionally, miners are still profitable at prices above $41,800, and as mining difficulty increases after the halving, a price surge should.
Notably, previous halving events have triggered substantial price increases, with Bitcoin seeing significant gains of 90X, 30X, and 7X. It is important to note that Bitcoin never returned to a price halving after these rebounds.
Looking at seasonal trends, the monthly opening price for April stands at $71,000, suggesting a positive outlook for the month. The average gain for April is estimated at 21.95%, implying an end-of-month target of $86,500, according to Zduńczyk.
Furthermore, the period from April 16 to 30 has historically seen average gains of 14.69%, further strengthening positive expectations and further price increases for BTC over the coming weeks. According to Zduńczyk, this delay could attract investors looking to buy the dip.
Despite the overall positive outlook, BTC is trading at $62,600, reflecting a steady decline over the past month. Over the past 30 days, BTC has seen a 9% decline from its mid-March all-time high of $73,700.
Moreover, in its quest for new highs and surpassing the $80,000 threshold, BTC encountered a significant obstacle at the $70,000 level. Despite surpassing its all-time high, BTC has struggled to consolidate above this level for over one week.
Nonetheless, as Zduńczyk pointed out, the potential synergy between the success of the US ETF market and the upcoming halving event could be the key to revitalizing BTC's price trajectory.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
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