How close is the current “Bitcoin cycle” to its bull market peak? History suggests it might be closer than most think.
Glassnode lead analyst James Check on Monday presented a chart comparing Bitcoin (BTC) price action over the past three years to other Bitcoin eras after hitting their respective all-time highs.
The top of the Bitcoin cycle, according to Glassnode
By cheque measureBitcoin is effectively in the same position as it was in December 2020. At the time, the asset had just crossed its all-time high above $19,600 initially recorded on December 12, 2017 – a 36-month wait – and would reach 64 000 $. in just a few months.
Bitcoin is in a very similar position today: approximately 35 months after its April 2021 peak, the asset rebounded to a high of $74,000 in March 2024. It even experienced a brief setback Last week, long-term holders took money off the table, reminiscent of 20-30% price declines in previous cycles.
“The reason I use April is because that’s when bear market sentiment set in, and so the length of the recovery should be measured from that point,” Check explained .
Bitcoin price technically reached its highest price of 2021, at $69,000, in November. However, Glassnode previously noted that Bitcoin's true “peak” occurred in April 2021 from an on-chain behavior perspective, when long-term holders began selling their coins en masse towards the top, somewhat as in previous cycles.
Earlier this month, Check noted that this sale was already happening this year. At the time. Long-term holders were distributing coins at a rate of 257,000 BTC per month, compared to 319,000 BTC and 836,000 BTC during major market expansions in 2019 and 2021 respectively.
Where does Bitcoin go next?
According to the analyst, even Bitcoin “shrimp” – investors owning less than 1 BTC – are starting to sell their coins despite diligent accumulation and HODLing throughout the bear market.
Nonetheless, Check expressed confidence in the state of the market, calling it one of the most “robust” bull markets in history. “A consolidation and a bit of bull crabbing is the most likely outcome for weeks, if not months IMHO,” he tweeted on Sunday.
The analyst predicted this year that Bitcoin would surpass $250,000 per coin by the end of its current bull cycle.
The price of Bitcoin jumped more than 4% on Monday to over $70,000, rebounding from a pullback last week coupled with large capital outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Interestingly, ETF outflows did not appear to have slowed down on Monday, totaling $350 million.
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