Some Bitcoin indicators show similarities between the post-ATH price action and the current trend, which means there will be one last push higher before a bigger drop occurs.
Indicators may show that today’s price action is similar to that after $64.5K
As the CryptoQuant analyst pointed out, there seem to be many similarities between Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) indicators and current ones.
There are three main relevant metrics here. The first is the exchange reserve, which shows how much BTC is currently held in central exchange wallets.
Here’s how the value of this indicator has changed over the past year:
The BTC exchange reserve after the ATH vs today
Looking at the graph above, there appears to be a similarity between the two periods. Both had lower prices as well as lower exchange reserves.
Next is the estimated leverage ratio, which is an indicator that shows how much leverage traders use on average. It is calculated by taking the open interest divided by the exchange reserve.
The leverage ratio seems to be plunging down
Here too the similarity can be seen as the index appears to have fallen sharply during both the current day and the post-ATH period.
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Finally, there is the Output Spent Profit Ratio (SOPR), which is calculated by taking the ratio of the value realized (in US dollars) to the value of the generated output spent.
In simpler terms, the indicator shows whether Bitcoin wallets are selling their coins at a profit or a loss. The chart below shows trends for this metric.
The BTC SOPR over the past six months
The SOPR value appears to have fallen below 1 during both periods. This value indicates that investors have been selling Bitcoin at a loss (values above 1 indicate the opposite).
Related reading | Bitcoin Price ‘Pitchfork Channel’ Could Prove Last All-Loss Point
If the current trend is indeed similar to the post-ATH trend as these indicators seem to suggest, this means that the price of BTC may soon rise and reach a local peak. And just like the previous time, a big drop can happen after that which takes the price to lower levels. So this uptrend could be the last bullish move for a while.
BTC price
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $45.7K, down 10% in the past seven days. Over the past month, the value of the cryptocurrency has fallen by 1%.
Below is a graph showing the trend in the currency price over the past three months:
Bitcoin's price moves sideways after a big plunge downwards | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant