The price of Bitcoin over the past two weeks has been in an absolute vortex, causing many to wonder if we are still in a bull market, what will happen next, and how to properly position themselves in the last quarter of the year.
In the midst of these turbulent times, we sit down with a leading analyst of the series Daniel Joe. We talk about the current state of the market, whether or not we expect Bitcoin to reach $100k anytime soon, as well as some helpful tips for those of you who are just getting into the crazy world of cryptocurrency trading and investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3_pHP_-tw
Selling Apple Shares for Bitcoin
Daniel Joe has over 10 years of experience in the markets, getting his start in the equity field working in countless organizations spanning from small tech companies to medium to large corporations.
He is currently a Chained Technology Analyst at Lightning Capital and data intelligence firm CryptoQuant. If his name sounds familiar, that’s because he’s also responsible for the amazing Bitcoin price analysis here at CryptoPotato.
Joe shared that he started out as a traditional value investor, based on safe and time-proven principles. However, it has also been able to catch the “technological growth tide” by investing in Apple, Tesla, and NVIDIA.
He first heard about Bitcoin in 2014, but it wasn’t until later in 2017 when he really got into it, and things clicked. Interestingly, Joe recently sold a large part of the Apple stock he had held for years and invested in BTC.
“The reason I sell Apple is because I’ve been waiting for the longest time for the market to appreciate Apple as a service company because that would give it a P-multiplier of roughly 30-40 times earnings, like Google or Facebook. That year is when it finally happened.
[…] I held out for a very long time and realized a lot of gains and thought this was a great time because Apple hit multi-year highs and Bitcoin at $30K. This was during the meltdown in May and June.”
Bitcoin is undervalued
The simplest way to understand why Joe is moving is that Bitcoin is undervalued. Now, he’s a technical analyst and blockchain, so we’ve also focused on that – what’s happening in the blockchain itself that underpins this.
First, Joe looks at how long-term holders and miners behave during different market cycles.
One of the reasons I keep saying we’re not in a bear market is that the long-term holders of minerals and the miners who control most of the supply, are piling up.
He repeats that the most recent negative price swings occur mostly because the new and short-term holders, also referred to as weak hands, are the ones selling. He also attributes some of the recent declines to large liquidation events, but doesn’t see any serious reasons to believe we’re not in a bull market.
However, the analyst maintains a realistic position and identifies the only reason he might be suspicious of Bitcoin. He said the only thing like that would be if something newer and better came out, but the chances of that happening seem particularly slim at the moment.
A look into the future (bright)
$96,000 per BTC by December of this year – this is the best-case scenario according to Daniel’s analysis. He also prefaced that by saying that it could also happen “sometime in the first quarter of next year (read: 2021)”. He believes that we are still in a bull market and also sets other goals going forward.
Joe’s upside target is $178K-$190K in December, Q1 or Q2 of next year. If things go wrong, he also said that we could see BTC trading above $300,000 and above.
The analyst explained that these goals depend on time and circumstances. There are a lot of targets Bitcoin needs to overcome before we can reach these numbers. It is also important to monitor how on-chain metrics fluctuate as you achieve these goals.
Daniel also compared the current course to the one from 2013 and gave some very valuable advice to newcomers to the space, so be sure to check out the video and watch it to the end.
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