Amazon has been on the market since 1997, when it started off as an online store for books. Since then, Amazon has expanded to become an all-purpose ecommerce platform, and has also made a huge splash in the cloud computing sector with its Amazon Web Services division. The company is also active in artificial intelligence, online advertising, video streaming and many other sectors.
Amazon’s growth has propelled its founder Jeff Bezos to become one of the wealthiest people in the world, with an estimated net worth of $160 billion as of September 2023.
We will be focusing our attention on the future and explore Amazon stock forecasts for 2040 and 2050 using the historical growth rates of major market indices as benchmarks.
Before we continue, let’s quickly see what the price of Amazon stock would look like under various scenarios.
|AMZN stock forecast (S&P 500 avg. annualized return of 10.15%)||$138.6||$272||$717||$1,886|
|AMZN stock forecast (NASDAQ 100 avg. annualized return of 17.2%)||$147||$448||$2,191||$10,715|
Calculations based on AMZN stock price of $125.9.
Amazon stock price history
Since debuting on the market, Amazon stock has increased by a massive 139,877%. In other words, if you invested $1,000 into Amazon when it entered the stock market, you would have almost $1.4 million today.
Amazon stock performance since 1997. Image source: TradingView.
The most successful years for Amazon stock so far have been 2003, 2007, 2009, 2015 and 2020.
So far, Amazon stock has been subject to 4 stock splits. In 1998, the stock saw a 2 for 1 split. The second split was a 3 for 1 split in 1999. The third split also took place in 1999, and was a 3 for 1 split. The 4th and most current Amazon split took place in 2022, and was a 20 for 1 split.
Amazon stock forecast for 2040
Over the last ten years, the average annual return of AMZN stock has been 23.5%. This is unlikely to continue in the coming years, as Amazon simply doesn’t have as much room for growth as it did 10 years ago. It’s already the 5th most valuable company in the world, commanding a market capitalization of just under $1.3 trillion at the time of writing.
For this reason, we’ll be using a more conservative benchmark to explore how high the Amazon stock price could go in the next few decades. We’ve opted to use the average annualized return of the S&P 500 index since it adopted its present format in 1957, which is 10.15%.
A more ambitious benchmark would be the average annual return of the Nasdaq 100 index since 2013, which is currently at around 17.2%. We’ll also show what the Amazon stock price would be if it followed this benchmark, although you should keep in mind that this would be an extremely optimistic scenario.
If Amazon stock were to follow the S&P’s historical yearly growth rate of 10.15% until 2040, the stock would be priced at $717, or about 5.7x higher than its current price.
Meanwhile, if it followed the average yearly performance of the Nasdaq 100 index since 2013 (17.2%), AMZN stock would trade at a whopping $2,191. This would represent a 17.3x increase compared to the stock’s current price.
Amazon stock forecast for 2050
Now, we’re getting into extremely speculative territory, as accurately forecasting the price movements of a single asset 27 years in advance is next to impossible. However, we can get an idea of just how high the price of AMZN would be if it followed market benchmarks for an extended period of time.
If we assume that the Amazon stock price followed the S&P 500’s historical 10.15% yearly rate of return until 2050, the stock would be priced at $1,886, or 14.9x higher than the current price.
Meanwhile, the more optimistic benchmark of Nasdaq 100’s 17.2% average yearly performance since 2013 would result in an AMZN stock price of $10,715, or an 85x increase compared to the current price. It goes without saying that this scenario is very unrealistic, as Amazon is already the fifth-largest company in the world in terms of market capitalization.
What to expect next for AMZN? Amazon stock price prediction for 2023 and 2024
According to the Amazon stock prediction provided by the CoinCodex platform, we can expect Amazon to display moderate growth in 2024. Currently, the platform is forecasting that AMZN will be trading at $160.7 in October 2024, which would be an increase of roughly 27.5% compared to the current price.
However, the prediction does expect there to be significant volatility in the meantime, as it suggests that Amazon stock could dip as low as $83 towards the end of 2023. Following this crash, the forecast expects AMZN to rally hard in Q1 2023.
Of course, predicting the price movements of stocks is difficult as the stock markets are affected by countless factors. So, any algorithmic predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.
The bottom line
Amazon has displayed a tremendous evolution from being a niche online retail to becoming a veritable tech giant today. However, we need to keep in mind that Amazon already has a market capitalization of almost $1.3 trillion, which does limit its future growth potential to an extent.
If you’re interested in exploring more topics related to stocks, make sure to check out our article exploring whether Ford stock can reach $100.