British multinational bank Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, an increase of more than 300% from its current trading level.
The bank argued in a Monday research note that Bitcoin spot ETFs – expected to receive “imminent” approval – could absorb flows worth $50 billion to $100 billion within a year.
The Upside Potential of Bitcoin ETFs
The bank based its revenues estimates on the performance of the first gold ETF to hit the US market in November 2004.
The precious metal is frequently compared to Bitcoin in financial circles as a rare form of money and a reliable store of value. As with the gold ETF, a Bitcoin equivalent would allow investors to easily and familiarly access the price of the asset without having to manage the complexity of storing the asset themselves.
“The price of gold increased 4.3 times in the seven to eight years it took for gold ETP holdings to mature after the introduction of the first ETP,” explained the analysts at the bank, including Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research, and precious metals analyst Suki Cooper.
The authors expect a Bitcoin ETF to trigger gains of the same magnitude, but in a shorter time frame of just one to two years, as the Bitcoin ETF market is expected to “grow faster.”
According to the bank’s assumptions, such inflows could drive the price of Bitcoin to “a late 2025 level closer to $200,000.”
“This assumes that between 437,000 and 1.37 million new Bitcoins will be held in US spot ETFs by the end of 2024,” the analysts continued. “In dollar terms, it should be about $50 billion to $100 billion.”
Countdown to Bitcoin ETFs
Last month, Standard Chartered estimated that BTC would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024, thanks to the approval of ETFs and the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
Nearly a dozen asset managers, including BlackRock, Fidelity and Ark Invest, are awaiting SEC approval for their ETF applications this week. The agency’s final deadline to approve or deny Ark’s application is Wednesday.
Nearly all sponsors have disclosed exceptionally low management fees for their products, signaling to some that their providers may have enormous expectations for assets under management to be able to maintain such low fees.
As enthusiasm for ETFs grows, Bitcoin hit another multi-year high of $47,100 on Monday.
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