Bitcoin (BTC) has been stuck between $45,400 and $47,500 for two days, indicating a tug of war between buyers and sellers as the two try to establish control over the trend.
Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode showed that 100,000 Bitcoin left exchanges in March. These large amounts of pullbacks have only happened twice in Bitcoin’s history, with the largest being in March 2020. However, this does not mean that the price will rise immediately. In 2020, the momentum only accelerated in the fourth quarter of the year.
In the short term, analysts remain divided, with some expecting Bitcoin to fall to $44,800 or even $43,000 while others anticipate a rally at the psychological level to $50,000.
As crypto markets mature, they continue to attract new investors. A report from crypto exchange Gemini highlighted that the number of users who bought their first cryptocurrency in 2021 soared by more than 50% in India, Brazil and Hong Kong. Even Latin America, Asia-Pacific, the United States, and Europe saw over 40% new users start investing in 2021.
Could Bitcoin and altcoins bounce off their support and prolong the recovery? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
The long wick on the last two-day candlestick suggests that the bears are selling near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ($48,266). A small positive was that the bulls did not allow Bitcoin to break below the important support at $45,400.
However, this narrow range trading is unlikely to continue for long. If the price breaks below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($44,467), the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the 50-day SMA ($41,689). Such a move could invalidate the short-term bullish setup.
Conversely, if the price is rising from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that traders are continuing to buy on dips. This could improve the outlook for a break above the 200-day SMA. If that happens, the pair could climb to $52,000.
Ether (ETH) broke and closed above the 200-day SMA ($3,487) on April 3, but the bulls were unable to sustain the higher levels. This suggests that the bears are trying to drive the price down and trap the aggressive bulls.
If the price breaks below $3,411, the bears will try to pull the ETH/USDT pair towards the 20-day EMA ($3,197). This is an important level for bulls to defend if they want the positive momentum to remain intact.
If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA, buyers will again try to push and hold the price above the 200-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair could climb to $4,000.
On the other hand, if the 20-day EMA support breaks, the selling could intensify and the pair could fall to the 50-day SMA ($2,895).
BNB has been trading near the $445 level for the past few days. Although the bulls pushed the price above this level several times, they were unable to sustain the higher levels and challenge the 200-day SMA ($467). This indicates that demand is drying up at higher levels.
The bears will now try to pull the price towards the 20-day EMA ($421), which is an important support to watch. If the price rebounds from this level, the buyers will make another attempt to break through the hurdle and push the BNB/USDT pair to $500.
Alternatively, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that short-term traders may be taking profits. This could pull the price towards the 50-day SMA. A break below this support will suggest that the break above $445 may have been a bull trap.
Solana’s (SOL) recovery stalled just below the 200-day SMA ($150). This suggests that higher levels are attracting selling by the bears. The bears will now try to pull the price to the breakout level at $122.
If the price rebounds from $122, the bulls will again attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the 200-day SMA. If successful, the SOL/USDT pair could rally towards the psychological level at $200. The rising 20-day EMA ($111) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) near the overbought zone indicate an advantage for buyers.
Contrary to this assumption, if the bears cause the price to drop below $122, the pair could fall to the 20-day EMA. This is an important support to watch as a break below could cause the 50-day SMA ($96) to decline.
The bulls tried to push Ripple (XRP) above the overhead resistance at $0.86, but the bears didn’t budge. Failure to break above $0.86 could attract profits from short-term traders, which could drive the price down to the 50-day SMA ($0.78).
If the price rebounds off the 50-day SMA again, it will suggest that the bulls are piling up on the bears. This could keep the XRP/USDT pair stuck between the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA ($0.89) for a few days.
The 20-day flat EMA ($0.82) and RSI near the midpoint also suggest near-term consolidation.
If the bears pull the price below the 50-day SMA, the pair could drop to $0.70. Alternatively, if the buyers push the price above the 200-day SMA, the pair could rally back to the psychological level at $1.
Cardano (ADA) arrived on April 1 and hit overhead resistance at $1.26 where the bulls are likely to meet strong resistance from the bears.
The upward sloping 20-day EMA ($1.08) and RSI near the overbought zone indicate that the path of least resistance is on the upside. If the bulls push the price above $1.26, the ADA/USDT pair could rally back to the 200-day SMA ($1.48) and then to $1.63.
Conversely, if the price falls again from the overhead resistance, the pair could fall to the 20-day EMA. A breakout and close below this support could push the price down to the psychological level at $1.
Terra’s LUNA token broke above air resistance at $111 on April 2 and hit a new all-time high at $118 on April 3. This suggests that the bulls are in control.
However, the negative divergence on the RSI warns that the bullish momentum may weaken and the LUNA/USDT pair may experience a minor correction or consolidation.
If the price slips below the 20-day EMA ($100), traders who may have been buying at lower levels could take profits. This could push the price down to the 50-day SMA ($84).
Conversely, if the price bounces off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls continue to defend the level aggressively. Buyers will then try to push the pair above $118. If they succeed, the pair could rise to $125 and later march towards $150.
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Avalanche (AVAX) repeatedly breached the overhead resistance at $98 over the past few days, but the bulls were unable to sustain the higher levels. This indicates that the bears are defending the level with vigor.
The bears will now try to pull the price towards the 20-day EMA ($89). This is an important level to watch as a strong rally will suggest that sentiment remains bullish and traders are buying on dips.
This could increase the possibility of a breakout and close above the $98-$100 resistance zone. If that happens, the AVAX/USDT pair could climb to $120.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues to decline and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the next stop could be the 50-day SMA ($82). The pair could then extend its range-bound action for a few more days.
Polkadot (DOT) broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $23 on April 3, but the bulls were unable to sustain the higher levels. This suggests that the bears have not given up yet and are selling on every rise.
The bears are trying to keep the price below $23 and trap aggressive bulls who may have spent long on a break above resistance. The critical level to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($21).
If this support cracks, the DOT/USDT pair could fall to $19. If the price bounces off this level, the DOT/USDT pair could stay in a range between $19 and $23 for a few days.
Conversely, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above $24, the pair could rally up to the 200-day SMA ($29).
Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($0.13) on April 3, indicating that the bulls continue to defend this level aggressively. The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive zone indicate an advantage for the buyers.
The buying continued on April 4 and the bulls tried to resume the move towards the overhead resistance zone between $0.17 and the 200-day SMA ($0.18), but the long wick on the candlestick suggests that the bears are selling at higher levels.
If the price continues to decline and breaks below the 20-day EMA, this will suggest that the DOGE/USDT pair could stay in the range between $0.10 and $0.17 for a few more days.
The bulls will need to propel and hold the price above the 200-day SMA to signal a potential trend change.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC to exchange.