Bitcoin is the first and most popular cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization and user base. Created in 2009, the flagship cryptocurrency has seen a meteoric rise from 2010 when the price for one token rose from fractions of a dollar to $0.09 to an all-time high of $68,789.63 in 2021. While its price has been volatile, Bitcoin remains the top “blue-chip” cryptocurrency, a pioneer with a solid reputation and history to invest in during crypto winter.
This article will look into Bitcoin’s volatile trading history, explore the popular methods used to predict Bitcoin’s price, and introduce exact price predictions for the upcoming years.
While it’s impossible to predict Bitcoin’s exact price for the forthcoming years, many analysts suggest that the cryptocurrency could reach anywhere from $50 – $200K by 2030, considering the current trend.
Bitcoin Price History
Bitcoin’s trading history is highly volatile, and the cryptocurrency has undergone bullish highs (around $69000 in 2021) and dramatic crashes (below $20000 in 2022) since it became available. With the Bitcoin price down more than 70% from its record closing high of 2021, billions were wiped off the cryptocurrency bear market of 2022.
While most investors are willing to benefit from Bitcoin’s price upswings and are discouraged by its downswings, Bitcoin hodlers remain unfazed by its wild swings as they continue holding BTC for the long term.
Here are some key moments in Bitcoin’s price history:
- Bitcoin was created in 2009, and its initial price was around $0.01.
- In 2010, within seven months, Bitcoin’s price increased from $0.07 to $1.00.
- In 2013, BTC price reached $230 on April 8 and dropped to $68.50 on July 4.
- By December 2013, it had spiked to $1,237.55 and then fallen to $687.02 in three days.
- In 2017, Bitcoin experienced another massive price surge and skyrocketed to $19,345.49 on Dec. 15.
- In 2018, Bitcoin experienced yet another price crash and dropped to around $3,000.
- The recent bull run of 2021 pushed the BTC price above $68,000, and Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $68,789.
- In the current bear market, Bitcoin dropped as low as $16,500.
Notable Events in Bitcoin History
From its early-bird enthusiasts to the recent institutional support, Bitcoin’s history is rich with amazing achievements. Here are some of the most notable events in Bitcoin history:
- In 2010, the first real-world Bitcoin transaction was made. A programmer named Laszlo Hanyecz paid a whopping 10,000 BTC for two pizzas.
- In 2013, the FBI’s crackdown on Silk Road, an underground website released by the “Dark Web” where users could trade drugs, find contract killers, etc., using Bitcoin, highlighted both the good and bad sides of the most popular cryptocurrency.
- In 2014, the world’s largest crypto exchange, Mt. Gox, filed for bankruptcy after 850,000 Bitcoins had been stolen. This event undermined users’ confidence in the security of Bitcoin exchanges and triggered a market downturn.
- In 2016, Bitcoin implemented Segregated Witness (SegWit), an upgrade to the Bitcoin protocol, increasing its maximum block size and improving the efficiency of transactions.
- In 2017, the launch of Bitcoin futures on CBOE and CME exchanges enabled institutional investors to invest in Bitcoin.
- In 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many people turned to Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. The high demand caused a surge in its price and ultimately led to its all-time high of 2021.
- In 2022, the crypto market experienced horrifying bankruptcies (Terra, Luna, Celsius), the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX with fraud charges against Sam Bankman-Fried, and $2 trillion in losses in crypto assets. These events further undermined users’ confidence in some key players in crypto and pushed the market down.
Bitcoin Annual Returns
Let’s check the BTC annual returns below.
| Year | BTC YOY Return |
|---|---|
| 2009 | N/A |
| 2010 | 30,203% |
| 2011 | 1,467% |
| 2012 | 187% |
| 2013 | 5,870% |
| 2014 | -61% |
| 2015 | 35% |
| 2016 | 124% |
| 2017 | 1,338% |
| 2018 | -73% |
| 2019 | 94% |
| 2020 | 302% |
| 2021 | 60% |
| 2022 | -64% |
| 5-Year Average Price Increase | 63.8% |
Now, let’s compare Bitcoin vs. traditional assets:
As we can see, Bitcoin has outperformed Gold, Global Debt, and Global Equities by a significant margin within 3, 4, and 5-year time frames.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Methods
Predicting the future price of Bitcoin is a challenging task, as there are many factors that can impact its price, and it is inherently unpredictable. However, some methods that analysts and traders use to try to predict the future price of Bitcoin include:
- Technical Analysis: This involves using charts and historical price data to identify patterns and make predictions about future price movements. Technical analysts look for trends, support and resistance levels, and other technical indicators to make predictions.
- Fundamental Analysis: This involves evaluating the underlying factors that drive the demand and supply of Bitcoin, such as economic and political events, technological advancements, and adoption rate. Analysts also look at metrics such as network activity, transaction volume, and mining difficulty to make predictions.
- Sentiment Analysis: This involves analyzing the market’s overall mood, including public opinion and investor sentiment, to predict future price movements.dict future price movements.
- News and Media Coverage: Major news events, such as regulatory changes, can have a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price, so it’s important to stay up-to-date with the latest news and media coverage. so it’s important to stay up-to-date on the latest news and media coverage.
It’s important to note that none of these methods provide a guarantee for future price movements, as many factors can impact Bitcoin’s price in ways difficult to predict. As such, predictions about its future price should be made with caution, considering that crypto is a high-risk investment.
Popular Methods of Predicting BTC Price
The accuracy of the prediction of crypto prices depends on the in-depth knowledge of the underlying asset and the models used to predict its long-term price.
In order to remove human emotion from the equation when predicting BTC price, analysts often use algorithmic models that take into account several metrics, including BTC halving, supply and demand, trading volume, number of active addresses, etc.
Several machine learning models such as the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) RNN machine learning model, time series models like AR (Auto Regressive model), MA (Moving Average model), and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model), are used for forecasting the BTC price.
Major Factors That Affect the Bitcoin Price
Some of the key metrics that affect Bitcoin’s price include:
- Bitcoin Scarcity
- User Adoption
- Bitcoin Halving
Bitcoin Scarcity
Bitcoin’s main source of value lies in its restricted supply and increasing demand. Its supply is limited to 21 million coins of which 18.77 million have already been mined. This makes Bitcoin scarce, impacting its price.
User Adoption
Another key factor that boosts Bitcoin’s price is the increasing adoption rate, both retail and institutional adoption.
According to triple-a.io’s analysis, the global crypto ownership rates in 2023 are similar to the Internet’s early adoption rates, with an average of 4.2% or over 420 million crypto users worldwide.
With that assumption, the high adoption rate of the largest cryptocurrency by market cap will further boost the demand for Bitcoin — and, therefore, its price.
Bitcoin Halving
The last key factor affecting the Bitcoin price is halving. Bitcoin halving policy was written into Bitcoin’s mining algorithm to counteract inflation by maintaining scarcit. Halving reduces the number of bitcoins rewarded to miners, thereby reducing the number of coins in circulation. In the past, we’ve seen the market responding to Bitcoin halvings bullishly, with the price of the currency increasing rapidly shortly before or after the event.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Now let’s make Bitcoin price prediction for the upcoming years based on the experts’ forecasts and with reference to some data and tools we can assess.
Bitcoin Price in 2023
According to the Bitcoin Rainbow chart, a great indicator of Bitcoin price movement, BTC’s price is predicted to move between ~$20,000 and ~$455,000, depending on the color bands.
While this range is very braod, Bitcoin has followed it very closely.
On the other hand, the Bitcoin Wave model predicts Bitcoin would trade between the current price and $80,000 in 2023.
To narrow it down even further, we can also consider other predictions to form an opinion. For example, the Economy Forecast Agency projected that Bitcoin would trade between $8,513 and $12,846 in 2023. On the other hand, Analytics Insight predicted Bitcoin’s price would hit the $100,000 mark by the end of 2023. Changelly predicted Bitcoin’s price could reach $37,993 this year.
The Bitcoin Wave model predicted Bitcoin would trade below $80,000 and the price would be around $50,000 in June 2023.
While estimations around Bitcoin’s top price vary greatly, the average lowest price for 2023 is above the current Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin Price in 2024
2024 is special, as this is when the next Bitcoin Halving will occur. With the mining reward cut in half yet again, we can expect this event to spark another green wave in the crypto sector.
When it comes to price predictions, the Bitcoin Rainbow chart shows around $39,500, and an absolute high of around $690,000. Once again, we have to take into account the band, as the upper prediction is reflected in the uppermost band.
The Economy Forecast Agency predicts the Bitcoin price to fluctuate between $12,656 and $22,158 throughout 2024; while Changelly ranges Bitcoin between $52,387 and $91,629.
Ultimately, most experts agree on an average trading price between the current all-time high and $85,000.
Bitcoin Price in 2025
Unlike with traditional assets, time flows slightly faster with cryptocurrencies. Hence, Bitcoin price predictions for 2025 are long-term price predictions, varing greatly between analysts.
Changelly predictions on Bitcoin’s minimum and maximum prices are about $61,750 and $74,448, with an average expected trading price of $63,973. On the other hand, Software Testing Help predicts Bitcoin to trade between $120,438 and $137,071, with an average trading price of $124,520. CryptoNewz predictions are slightly less optimistic, expecting BTC to trade between $39,512 and $62,723.
Some predictions expect BTC price to reach $500,000, or even $1 million by the end of 2025. On the other hand, if a strong push up is expected in 2024, we may see a pullback, and potentially a bear market this year.
Bitcoin Price in 2026
Changelly predicts Bitcoin to trade at $90,405 and $107,152, with an average trading price of $92,964.
Software Testing Help is much more optimistic as it predicts Bitcoin to trade between $181,308 and $214,232, with an average trading price of $186,289.
CryptoNewz’ predictions are again slightly less optimistic, with BTC trading between $48,111 and $59,036.
2026 is generally forecasted to be bullish as the SEC chairman, Gary Gensler, will be stepping down, potentially opening the position up for a more crypto-friendly replacement.
Bitcoin Price in 2027
2027 is expected to be very bullish, with Changelly predicting Bitcoin’s minimum and maximum prices to be $157,827 and $138,061, with an average price of $141,780.
Software Testing Help predicts the BTC minimum and maximum prices to reach $260,604 and $306,558, with an average trading price of $268,056.
Last but not least, CryptoNewz forecasts BTC minimum price of $57,402 and maximum price of $67,423, with a potential average trading price of $62,413.
Bitcoin Price in 2028
This is another year of Bitcoin Halving that might push the BTC price further up.
Changelly’s forecast estimates the average BTC price to be around $202,049, with a minimum of $194,960 and a maximum of $238,524.
CryptoNewz predicts the average BTC price to reach $70,794, marking the first year that Bitcoin breaks its current all-time high.
Bitcoin Price in 2029
2029 is the year the Bitcoin Wave model predicts Bitcoin to reach $1 million, with the end-of-year price rising to $1.2 million per coin.
Software Testing predicts the BTC price to be between $544,924 and $642,506, with an average price of $560,349.
Changelly predicts BTC to trade between $272,272 and $333,407, with an average price of $282,375.
Bitcoin Price in 2030
We can’t talk about 2030 without mentioning Ark Invest, an investment management firm led by Cathy Wood.
Their “Big Ideas” research report states that Bitcoin’s price will reach $1 million by the end of the year without much trouble, despite the turbulence in 2022. The prediction is backed by the growing fundamentals, namely an increasing hashrate, long-term holder supply, and non-zero-balance address increase.
When it comes to actual predictions, Ark states three cases:
- Bear case: BTC price of $285,500 with a CAGR of ~40%.
- Base case: BTC price of $682,800 with a CAGR of ~60%.
- Bull Case: BTC price of $1.48 million, with a CAGR of ~75%.
On the other hand, Changelly forecasts BTC price to be between $411,152 to $480,996, with an average price of $422,447 throughout the year; while CryptoNewz predicts the average to be around $81,041. Ambcrypto, the most bullish of the three, expects BTC price to be between $836,552 and $962,484.
What Should You Do if Bitcoin Price Drops?
However, even the smartest of us get the future wrong when forecasting what’s next or predicting the future of crypto prices.
So, what should traders and investors do if the BTC price drops? How should we act during inevitable downturns and bear markets.
The two main things to do when the BTC price drops, are:
- Avoid panic-selling
- Utilize tax-loss harvesting.
Panic-selling any asset is most likely a bad move, as the sale itself is based on emotion rather than data. You must control your feelings during market downturns as well as upturns. Many whales and institutional investors use the bear market to dollar-cost average their position, reducing their base cost drastically.
However, if you do decide to sel your BTCl, ensure to utilize all the tools at your disposal, including tax-loss harvesting. This may decrease your tax burden significantly, so you could maximize your gains in the long run.
Is It Too Late to Buy Bitcoin in 2023?
According to almost all the price predictions by various experts and observers described above, Bitcoin has yet to show its full potential.
Most analysts and experts note that Bitcoin will follow the rest of the world into a bull market as soon as interest rates stop increasing. Alongside fundamental changes to the better, it will likely be a market trigger for a bull run, or at least a strong leg up.
Another reason to invest in Bitcoin is its price history compared to literally any other asset’s. Bitcoin has outperformed almost every investment vehicle in the long run, and it is expected to continue doing so in the future.
However, as with any type of investment, it’s best to manage your investments according to your risk tolerance. BTC is considered a high-risk investment, and we suggest doing extensive research before investing.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is an attractive option for many investors as it has historically offered the potential for high returns.
However, it’s worth remembering, that all investments carry risks. Bitcoin is an extremely volatile, high-risk asset, therefore, you should understand the factors affecting the BTC price before investing.
