As 2023 draws to a close, analysis of options data provides revealing insights into the perceived value of Bitcoin. At year-end options expiration on Dec. 29, $40,000 stands out as the distinct “call wall,” a term used to describe the price at which the greatest number of call options should expire.
Market open interest currently stands at 177,000 BTC. Of this total open interest, 106,000 BTC is locked up in calls, while 70,000 BTC is locked up in puts. This distribution results in a put/call ratio of 0.66, providing a solid measure of current market sentiment: a value below one generally indicates bullish sentiment, meaning the market expects prices to rise .
The breadth of these options is also remarkable. The notional value of open interest – the total value of the contracts – is approximately $7.7 billion. This figure highlights the important role that options play in the Bitcoin market.
Given these figures, the options market seems to be trending towards $40,000 as an estimate of the fair value of Bitcoin.
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