Some analysts say Bitcoin’s current price action aligns with Bitcoin’s halving pattern, leading them to expect a low of $24,000 before the end of the year.
The subject of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle and its effects on the long-term price of BTC is a topic that has been hotly debated within the crypto community.
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Crypto analysts have predicted that the price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by 2021. However, it did not reach that level, and now analysts are wondering what will happen in the next six to twelve months.
Right now, the price of BTC is below $40,000. Many technical analysis metrics suggest that the price is more likely to fall further than it will rise in the $40,000-$45,000 range. Let’s take a look at what analysts think about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.
Bitcoin could drop to $24,000 by the end of the year
Crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user »Crypto Wolvesdiscussed the four-year cycle theory on Twitter. This theory suggests that the “most likely bear market bottom for Bitcoin will be in November/December 2022”.
According to the projection, Bitcoin reached its highest level of the last cycle when it reached $68,789 on November 10, 2021. So now the BTC market is in the corrective phase, usually seen after the cycle peak.
The analyst said;
The 200-week SMA has been the long-tested bear market bottom indicator for Bitcoin, and therefore the bottom will likely be placed at around $24,000.
If this pattern is correct, we will see bitcoin surpass its all-time high between August and September 2023.
Independent market analyst Willy Woo suggested Bitcoin’s bottom could come before the end of 2022. He mentioned, “The orange coin looks a bit undervalued here.”
The “Highly Liquid Supply Shock” metric measures how much demand and supply have changed from the long-term average.
The chart above shows that when the oscillator went down to the same level it is now, the price of Bitcoin rose soon after.
It’s not a bad time for investors to wait for the law of mean reversion to occur.
BTC at mid-term low
Crypto market analyst Philip Swift has suggested that Bitcoin may be in an optimal accumulation range. The AASI or Active Address Sentiment Indicator indicates this point for the buy zone.
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“The AASI is back in the green zone. This suggests that the Bitcoin price change is at a reasonable level relative to the active address change,” Swift said. “This tool has a good hit rate in both bull and bear markets to signal a mid-term bottom.”
The AASI reading is currently similar to the readings it had in the past. For example, the price of Bitcoin was low around the same time, and its price rose a few weeks or months later.
Generally, Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle, but the increase is occurring at a slower pace than expected.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview