This is an opinion piece by Mickey Koss, a West Point graduate with a degree in economics. He spent four years in the infantry before moving to the Finance Corps.
Just a week into 2023, and I’ve seen Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano debates Michael Shellenberger and Joe Rogan interviews Peter Zeihan. Although these media impressions may seem unrelated, a common thread is sewn between the two: experts in different fields confidently professing uninformed opinions about Bitcoin.
by Zeihan misunderstandings can be heard in the last 20 minutes or so of the interview. Indeed, our friend Guy Swann has just produced a report of nearly 90 minutes episode of “Bitcoin Audible” dedicated to tearing apart Zeihan’s analysis. bitcoin cafe did the same recently in the first half or so of its January 9, 2023 episode.
Shellenberger made it a little easier to pinpoint his misunderstandings, apparently going on Pomp’s podcast for the sole purpose of demonstrating his complete and utter ignorance.
I think one of the most pertinent questions to consider as a result of these conversations is: how are either of these two gentlemen qualified to make such assessments in the first place?
How can someone feel so comfortable saying something they know so little about? If these two are so trusting with opinions that are so blatantly false and misinformed, why should I trust them with anything else?
While discussing these two small group interviews, one of the members said something that inspired the idea behind this article:
“For now, they both feel safe in their assertions. In the next bull cycle, these clips will haunt them and tarnish their credibility.
–Alex Bramermember of the board of directors of Bitcoin Coalition Today (BTC)
He even turned that sentiment into a tweet, seen below:
A common characteristic of Bitcoiners is their low time preference – the willingness to sacrifice short-term comfort for long-term gains, instead of following every whim.
These individuals are the personification of what the fiat system does to people, a symptom of what happens when money stops communicating clear price signals. Their time preference has been so skewed that they willingly sacrifice long-term credibility for short-term notoriety. They do so without thinking, with little understanding of what they are criticizing, let alone the long-term implications of what they are saying. They do it because they have to, lest they be dismissed as fools, like the rest of us.
What happened to just saying “I don’t know”? Perhaps more importantly, what happens when all of these naysayers are not only proven wrong, but completely, spectacularly, and absolutely wrong in every way?
I predict in the months and years to come that those who have chosen to speak carelessly will begin to rapidly lose any semblance of credibility they once had.
The cure for Gell-Mann amnesia is absurdity
“In short, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is this. You open the newspaper to an article on a topic you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read article and see that the reporter has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues Often the article is so wrong that it actually presents the story backwards, reversing cause and effect I call these “wet streets cause rain” stories, and the paper is full of them.
“In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in an article, then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper were somehow more specific on Palestine than the nonsense you just read. You turn the page and forget what you know.
Bitcoin is the orange pill that wakes you up from the Matrix, yes, but what if the narrative gets too absurd? What if the criticisms and reproaches became so patently false that these so-called experts were no longer respected, let alone listened to?
I was a fan of Zeihan. I found his books interesting and instructive. They seemed well thought out and carefully researched. But after this interview, I don’t know what to think anymore. After hearing him speak, even before hearing his critique of Bitcoin, all I really heard was a quasi-automaton; a character who had practiced well speaking in polished sound bites. His Bitcoin analysis was so smooth, well-formulated and confident. Man, was he confident. And everything he said was absolutely wrong.
I see the next few years as the precipice of the dissolution of current experts. Just like the economist uncle in the dystopian tale “The Mandibles”, these experts will have answers to everything, and yet cannot explain anything. Slowly but surely, people will realize that the world these “experts” have created inside their theoretical minds no longer exists. Reality will eventually crumble.
But you don’t have to wait for that.
Once you understand Bitcoin, you understand that the long-term price is slowly approaching infinity as central banks gradually, then suddenly, add currency units to the system in order to manipulate the cost of capital as they see fit.
Saving in bitcoin can be a bumpy road for those who don’t see the value in it yet, but in my eyes it’s the safest thing I own. As I sit down to reflect during this tumultuous week in the bear market, I feel like I’ve never been more optimistic than I am right now.
This is a guest post by Mickey Koss. The opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
